2nd Annual Crystal Ball Gazing and Pundit Toss

It’s that time again – actually I’m really really late – for the 2nd Annual Crystal Ball Gazing and Pundit Toss – 2013 edition.

First – lets have the results from last year’s prognostication:

  1. 2012 doomsday – never happened.  I got that one right.
  2. SOPA-PIPA – again never happened.  I got that one wrong (thought it would pass).  That being said – congress is trying to resurrect that one again – pretty much verbatim.
  3. PC still here – but not as vibrant.  I got that basically correct.  You weren’t able to walk into Best Buy and get a high-end gaming system anymore (e.g. like I did in 2011) – and what remained was geared towards your casual users.  However, hobbyists still had options of getting some major gear through online resellers (Newegg and the like).
  4. Cloud computing – it was all the rage throughout 2012, and was the catalyst for various products and services.  However people did see some problems as their data became unavailable during network infrastructure failures – as I predicted.
  5. NASA manned space program – Kaput!  The Russians provided 4 Soyuz missions to the international space station, while the Chinese had one mission that docked with their orbiting laboratory/space station Tiangong-1.  Meanwhile unmanned flights continue unabated – with the USA #3 behind Russia and China.

My personal prediction results:

  1. CPU Cycle Pwnage – NOT!  I never did get that AMD system I wanted.  In the meantime, I did get a shiny new Nexus 7 tablet (the idea being to build software for it) – but then had it, and several other of my electronics stolen from a locked vehicle…  Given replacement costs for various things – repairs to the vehicle and other financial issues – my plans were pretty much dead in the water.  I got this one way wrong.
  2. Uber Blogger – NOT!  While I started off on a solid footing – life/work seemed to suck the time out of my dedication to blogging – and I fell well short of the 52 blog entries desired (only managed to do 8 entries).  Fail Whale!
  3. Doomsday Weight Loss Plan – goal: 100 lbs lost.  Accomplishment: GAINED 5 lbs (after losing a solid 10).  Again, I did not stick with it.
  4. Balance – goal: spend more time in meditation, doing outdoorsy stuff with family, and doing recording….no, no and no.  FAIL.

With that – I had a terrible year predicting my own behavior – but did fairly well predicting the outcome of the larger events.  As a result, I’m going to be a bit more conservative for 2013:

My personal Predictions/Goals for 2013:

  1. Computer and network: going to at least get the ‘hanger queen’ Intel i7 back online with new parts – and set it up to do development as a virtual machine host.  I will also complete building and installing my firewall – that will not only provide better security – but will also handle the buffer bloat problem, and improve my overall network performance.
  2. Development: going to make major progress on my open source project on my personal time.  Given my new job, I don’t expect to be able to announce and release/coordinate by the end of the year – but I anticipate being able to some time next year.
  3. Recording: going to start a voice blog/show on some theme I have as yet to lock down…  Shooting for one show a month for 2013.
  4. Weight loss – I will be active on a daily basis – and will have consistent wieght loss all year (won’t say how much – but will say it will be continuous).
  5. Blogging – I am shooting for writing at least one blog entry a month for 2013.  I did 8 last year – so 12 is a good round number.

Now for the big predictions for 2013:

  1. PC sales will continue to plummet – and hard core gaming will start to be threatened.  Distributors will start to report the unavailability of PC specific resources (motherboards, chipsets, peripherals) – and advancements in the technology of PC CPUs and other core components will stagnate as all efforts focus on tablets and phone form factors.
  2. Linux will go through a ‘dark age’ during 2013 – but this will set the stage for a ‘renaissance’ in 2014 that gives users more of what they want.  On a parallel note: hard core PC gaming will continue to improve under Linux as Windows falls by the wayside, but total numbers of hard core gamers will drop as consoles and casual gaming gains ground.
  3. SOPA – Round 2 – will raise the hackles of freedom loving people – and there will be another ground swell against it.  If passed, in concert with the already modified ‘no jail breaking’ rule from the librarian of the Library of Congress (under DMCA provisions) – the network will be less open to innovation using existing devices.  However, as we all know, the internet has the property of routing around log jams, and this will be no different.  I expect these rulings to impact business interests more than open source in the long run – and will provide opportunities for Kick-starter projects to fill gaps left by proprietary solutions.  We’ll see…
  4. With the death of Aaron Swartz and the backlash of Anonymous – we are already seeing an uptick in zero-day exploitation.  I expect that to continue throughout the year to make 2013 a critical year for network and systems security.

Check back with me at the beginning of 2014 to see how it all turns out.

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